How the electoral map changed between 2016 and 2020 — and what it method for the country

through Zachary B. Wolf, Daniel Wolfe, Byron Manley, Renée Rigdon and also Curt Merrill, published Nov. 7, 2020

Both Maine and Nebraska permit electoral votes to it is in split. Together of Nov. 7, Biden is projected come win one of Nebraska"s 5 Electoral university votes. In Maine, Biden is projected come win three Electoral university votes; trump is projected to win the remaining vote.

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Joe Biden has won the electoral votes come dislodge Donald Trump indigenous the White House, follow to projections, and also will end up being the 46th chairman of the united States.

On the cusp of history. Trump’s loss is a clear success for Democrats also if that is no the blue tidal tide that had become a pre-election expectation the some. They walk it v a distinctive coalition the liberal autonomous socialists, disaffected middle Republicans and also everyone in in between — and they expanded the electoral map, proving that a younger and an ext diverse electorate has brand-new priorities. Lock have elected a woman — a woman of color, no much less — top top a nationwide ticket because that the an initial time ever, and also Democrats might yet gain a slim bulk in the us Senate.

Turnout for this election collection records. much more than 74 million people cast votes because that Biden and more than 70 million cast votes for Trump. Those numbers will continue to creep up, but it appears that well much more than 65% of american participated in the election process, according to one estimate. It might be the highest possible turnout since 1900 — prior to women could vote.

There’s great news for the idea of democracy. The candidate who got much more votes is on speed to victory this election, i m sorry didn’t occur in 2016. In fact, Biden will certainly exceed 50% of the vote. Plainly the nation remains gall divided, however it’s tough to controversy Biden doesn’t have some kind of political mandate with much more than fifty percent the vote.

There’s negative news for Democrats, too. A large portion of the country ongoing to support Trump in spite of his impeachment, his an individual divisiveness, his courting the racists and more. The nation is split to a level many world didn’t realize. And also while Republicans may not have actually the White House, they seriously ate into Democrats’ House majority and might yet host the Senate.

Rust Belt states have actually been the basic of Democrats’ electoral map because that a generation, but in addition to winning lock back, Biden likewise expanded the map into the sun Belt and won two states that have actually not gone towards Democrats in decades.

The coalition of says that hand Biden the White home represents both the party’s past and also its future.

Democrats can’t count on the Rust Belt. when Biden go rebuild the blue wall, it’s clear that Democrats can’t financial institution on the Rust Belt. Biden, a Pennsylvania native, cut into Trump’s lead through White guys in the Keystone state, in particular, end his 2016 margin once he challenged Hillary Clinton. That’s no a route future democratic candidates may have the ability to achieve.

Look come states like Ohio and Iowa, i beg your pardon Democrats believed would be competitive but which eventually went comfortable to trump card to understand the challenge the party still encounters with White, socially conservative voters.

Nationally, among the largest changes from 2016 was Biden’s capacity to cut into Trump’s support amongst White men. Read more here around what we learned from exit polls.

Biden, with aid from new activism among young black color Democrats in Georgia as well as a coalition that Latino voters and disaffected republicans in Arizona, is top in two says Democrats have long had actually in your sights.

While the failed to win the enormous prizes of Texas and also Florida, i beg your pardon Democrats had hoped to victory on similar terms, it’s clean the country is an altering and states as soon as unthinkable for Democrats to success are now on the table.

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And Biden’s fail in Texas and Florida holds warning bells for Democrats. Their initiatives to turn out and win Latino voters requirements help. It’s also a lesson that Latino voters are not a monolith: Cuban-Americans in Miami proved receptive to Trump’s allegation that Democrats would certainly veer the nation toward socialism.