The number running approximately election day tightened amid dilemmas affecting both Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton and also her Republican competitor Donald Trump.


Use ours tracker to see exactly how it has played out and scroll under for part explanation on what the polls show.


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The elafilador.net poll of polls looks in ~ the 5 most recent nationwide polls and also takes the median value, ie, the value in between the two numbers that are higher and two numbers that room lower.

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Some type of at an early stage voting has been in place in most states throughout the US, an interpretation much the the electorate have cast their ballot prior to election day.


Although those votes are not counted till polls near on Tuesday, some claims release data on the variety of early votes and how many were native registered republic or Democrats.


In Nevada, for example, we recognize that of virtually 800,000 votes cast before early voting close up door on 4 November, 42% were by registered democrats while 36% to be by registered Republicans. Those numbers aren't too different to 2012, when Barack Obama take it the state v a to win margin that 6.7%.


Of course, there's nothing come say that those registered with among the next will certainly vote that way, especially due to the fact that both grandfather Trump and Mrs Clinton have actually made straight appeals to supporters of the various other party who may be disillusioned with their candidate.


But in general, the Nevada data comes as a surprise, due to the fact that much the the recent polling in the state has suggested Donald trumped is in the lead. The doesn't necessarily mean the polls are wrong - mr Trump could have a groundswell of assistance on choice day - but if they are, it may indicate they space finding it hard to account for the surge in hispanic voters.


That hispanic surge has actually been remarkable in numerous states, consisting of Arizona, Colorado, Florida and also North Carolina, according to evaluation by Catalist, a data firm working for grandm Clinton project team.


In vault elections it has been much less clear who Hispanic voters would back (Republican chairman George W shrub won 40% of their votes in 2004), however this year it's clearer many thanks in part to grandfather Trump's difficult rhetoric on immigration and Mexicans. Research team Latino Decisions projects that 79% that Hispanic voters will support Hillary Clinton.


One thing we recognize for sure is the far more people voted beforehand in this election 보다 in the past. In 2012, the total number of early votes actors was simply over 32 million. More than 40 million people voted at an early stage in 2016.



It's a hard task to gauge the the atmosphere of a country that is home to more than 300 million people however that doesn't protect against the pollsters from trying.


National polls tend to have actually a sample dimension of around 1,000 people or much more and have the right to track movement and also general opinion quite well.


This means that polls in states where one of two people candidate can win (Florida, Ohio and also Pennsylvania, to name just a few) pat an integral role in election projections.



The map listed below shows them and also which means they're most likely to vote based on data gathered by polling resource website genuine Clear Politics.


If those states stay the same colour (blue for Clinton, red because that Trump) on choice day - and also both candidates win the continuing to be states they're expected to - Hillary Clinton would be the winner.


However, grandfather Trump has recovered some ground in several states recently, consisting of Arizona and Nevada. In Florida, he leader by just 0.2% and in brand-new Hampshire, granny Clinton leads by just 0.6%.


The latest poll averages in the battleground says are displayed in the graph below. Some claims are polled more frequently 보다 others; no all the polls listed below will be showing a an outcome from the very same survey period.

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The bad news for Hillary Clinton is that the polls had currently begun come tighten both nationally and also in some crucial battleground states before FBI chef James Comey announced a brand-new inquiry into her email use on 28 October.


In the alphabet News/Washington write-up tracking poll for example, granny Clinton was ahead that Donald trumped by 12 clues on 23 October, however that lead had actually narrowed come one suggest a main later.


Enthusiasm because that Mrs Clinton had slipped contempt in the poll, with the number of her supporters who said they were really enthusiastic about her under from 51% come 47%.


Polls carry out tend to tighten as election day ideologies anyway, yet it appears news of the inspection did have actually some result on grandm Clinton's numbers.


Mr Comey announced on 6 November the the inquiry had found nothing to change the bureau's conclusion this summer the she should not confront criminal charges - however the damage may already have been done.


Donald Trump has actually been hit by numerous scandals because his project began. The most notable was the relax on 7 October that a video in i m sorry he can be heard boasting about sexually assaulting women. He said his comments were "just words" and denied ever before having groped a woman - yet several have since come front alleging just that.


This would have actually been enough to end the projects (and political lives) of numerous candidates, yet Mr Trump has actually survived. Indeed, one CNN poll exit on 24 October placed him on 45% - specifically the same number he to be on in the previous CNN poll exit on 3 October. Both polls had actually Mrs Clinton leading on 51%.


Mr Trump's capacity to continuous poll about 40% country while seldom going above 45% has actually led many experts to explain his support as having actually a high floor yet a low ceiling. Mr Trump got much more primary votes than any type of Republican in history but the polls present he has struggled to entice voters from outside his large and loyal base.