One the the biggest difficulties facing those who seek to understand U.S. Poll is establishing an accurate portrait the the American electorate and also the selections made by different kinds the voters. Obtaining precise data on how human being voted is complicated for a number of reasons.
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Surveys conducted before an election can overstate – or understate – the likelihood of part voters to vote. Depending upon when a survey is conducted, voters might adjust their preferences before Election Day. Surveys performed after an election can be influenced by errors stemming native respondents’ recall, either because that whom castle voted for or whether they voted in ~ all. Even the special surveys performed by major news establishments on choice Day – the “exit polls” – face challenges from refusals come participate and also from the fact that a sizable decimal of voters actually vote prior to Election Day and also must it is in interviewed using conventional surveys beforehand.
This report introduce a new approach for looking at the electorate in the 2016 basic election: equivalent members the Pew research study Center’s nationally representative American trends Panel to voter papers to produce a dataset of confirmed voters.
See also: A demographic Profile that 2018 Midterm Voters
The analysis in this report uses post-election inspection reports the 2016 vote choices (conducted Nov. 29-Dec. 12, 2016) amongst those that were identified as having actually voted using official voting records. These voter document records become available in the months after the election. (For more details, check out “Methodology.”) amongst these proved voters, the in its entirety vote choice mirrors the election results very closely: 48% report voting because that Hillary Clinton and also 45% for Donald Trump; by comparison, the official national vote tally to be 48% for Clinton, 46% because that Trump.
This data resource allows researchers to take a thorough look at the voting preferences of Americans across a range of demography traits and characteristics. The joins sources already available – consisting of the nationwide Election Pool leave polls, the American nationwide Election Studies and also the Current population Survey’s Voting and also Registration supplement – in hopes of helping researchers continue to refine their expertise of the 2016 election and also electorate, and also address complex questions such as the duty of race and also education in 2016 candidate preferences.
It reaffirms countless of the vital findings around how various groups vote – and also the composition of the electorate – that emerged from post-election analyses based on other surveys. Constant with various other analyses and also past elections, race was strongly correlated with voting preference in 2016. However there space some distinctions as well. For instance, the broad educational divisions among white voters watched in other surveys are even an ext striking in this data.Among validated voter in 2016, vast gap among whites through education
Overall, whites through a four-year college level or more education comprised 30% of every validated voters. Amongst these voters, far more (55%) stated they voted because that Clinton than for trump card (38%). Amongst the much larger group of white voter who had not completed college (44% of all voters), Trump winner by much more than two-to-one (64% come 28%).
There also were big differences in voter choices by gender, age and also marital status. Females were 13 portion points an ext likely than men to have actually voted because that Clinton (54% amongst women, 41% among men). The gender gap was particularly large among validated voters younger than 50. In this group, 63% the women said they voted because that Clinton, contrasted with simply 43% the men. Amongst voters periods 50 and also older, the gender space in support for Clinton was much narrower (48% vs. 40%).
About half (52%) of validated voters were married; among them, Trump had a 55% to 39% majority. Amongst unmarried voters, Clinton led by a comparable margin (58% to 34%).
Just 13% the validated voter in 2016 were younger 보다 30. Voter in this period group report voting because that Clinton end Trump by a margin of 58% to 28%, through 14% supporting one of the third-party candidates. Amongst voters periods 30 to 49, 51% supported Clinton and 40% favored Trump. Trump had an benefit among 50- come 64-year-old voters (51% to 45%) and also those 65 and also older (53% to 44%).
For a detailed malfunction of the ingredient of the 2016 electorate and voting preferences among a wide selection of subgroups of voters, check out Appendix. Because that the survey methodology and also details on exactly how survey respondents were matched come voter records, view “Methodology.”
2016 vote by party and ideology
Similarly, voting to be strongly associated with ideology system consistency, based upon a scale composed the 10 political worths – consisting of opinions on race, homosexuality, the environment, foreign policy and the social security net. Respondent are inserted into five categories varying from “consistently conservative” to “consistently liberal.” (For more, check out “The Partisan divide on Political values Grows also Wider.”)
Virtually all validated voters with continuously liberal values voted because that Clinton end Trump (95% to 2%), while almost all those with continuously conservative values went because that Trump (98% to much less than 1% because that Clinton). Those who held conservative see on many political worths (“mostly conservative”) favored trump card by 87% to 7%, while Clinton received the assistance of somewhat fewer among those who were “mostly liberal” (78%-13%). Amongst the almost one-third of voter whose ideological profile to be mixed, the poll was separated (48% Trump, 42% Clinton).
Religious affiliation and also attendance
Within the good news tradition, voter were separated by race and also evangelicalism. White evangelical Protestants, who constituted one out of every five voters, consistently have actually been among the strongest supporters that Republican candidates and also supported trump card by a 77% to 16% margin.
This is virtually identical to the 78% to 16% advantage that Mitt Romney organized over Barack Obama among white evangelicals in Pew Research facility polling on the night of the 2012 presidential election.
Among white mainline Protestants (15% of voter overall) 57% stated they voted because that Trump and 37% report voting because that Clinton. Clinton winner overwhelmingly amongst black Protestants (96% vs. 3% for Trump).
White non-Hispanic Catholics supported Trump by a ratio of around two-to-one (64% come 31%), while hispanic Catholics favored Clinton by an also larger 78% to 19% margin.
Among all voters, those who reported attending services at the very least weekly favored trump by a margin the 58% to 36%; the margin was comparable among those who stated they attended when or double a month (60% to 38%). Those that reported attending services a couple of times a year or hardly ever were divided; 51% sustained Clinton and 42% supported Trump. Amongst the almost one-quarter of voter (23%) who said they never attend spiritual services, Clinton led trump by 61% come 3o%.
Demographic and also political profiles of Clinton and Trump voters
As the sample of the votes implies, the coalitions that supported the two significant party nominees were an extremely different demographically. These distinctions mirror the large changes in the compositions that the two parties: The Republican and Democratic coalitions are more dissimilar demographically than at any point in the previous two decades.
In 2016, a 61% bulk of those who said they voted for Clinton to be women, if Trump voter were an ext evenly divided between men and women. Whites constituted nearly nine-in-ten (88%) the Trump’s supporters, compared with a smaller majority (60%) who voted for Clinton. Clinton’s voters also were younger than Trump’s on mean (48% to be younger than 50, compared with 35% for Trump).
Among Clinton voters, 43% were college graduates, compared with 29% of trumped voters. And also while non-college whites comprised a bulk of Trump’s voter (63%), they made up only about a 4 minutes 1 of Clinton’s (26%).
About a 3rd of Clinton voters (32%) stayed in urban areas, versus just 12% among Trump voters. By contrast, 35% of trump card voters claimed they to be from a landscape area; among Clinton voters, 19% resided in a rural community.
The spiritual profile the the 2 candidates’ voters likewise differed considerably. About a third of Clinton voter (35%) were religiously unaffiliated, as were simply 14% of trump voters. White evangelical voters consisted of a much greater share that Trump’s voters (34%) 보다 Clinton’s (7%). One-in-five Trump voter (20%) were white non-Hispanic Catholics, contrasted with simply 9% that Clinton voters. And also black Protestants to be 14% the Clintons supporters, while almost no black color Protestants in the survey reported voting for Trump.
How go 2016 voters and also nonvoters compare?
The data also administer a profile of voting-eligible nonvoters. Four-in-ten Americans that were standard to vote did not do so in 2016. There room striking demography differences in between voters and also nonvoters, and far-ranging political distinctions as well. Contrasted with validated voters, nonvoters were an ext likely to it is in younger, less educated, less affluent and also nonwhite. And nonvoters were much more Democratic.
While nonvoters were less likely than voters come align with the GOP, the photo was much less clear v respect to ideology. Fan in component to the propensity of nonvoters to be politically disengaged more generally, there space far more nonvoters than voters who autumn into the “mixed” classification on the ideology system consistency scale. Among nonvoters who organize a collection of political values with a unique ideological orientation, those with typically liberal worths (30% of all nonvoters) substantially outnumbered those with usually conservative values (18%).
Voters to be much an ext highly educated than nonvoters. Simply 16% of nonvoters were college graduates, compared with 37% of voters. Adults with only a high school education constituted half (51%) of nonvoters, compared with 30% among voters. White skin - man without a college degree made up 43% the nonvoters, around the very same as amongst voters (44%). However nonwhites there is no a college level were far more numerous amongst nonvoters (at 42%) than they were amongst voters (19%).
There likewise were large income differences between voters and also nonvoters. Much more than fifty percent (56%) that nonvoters reported annual family incomes under $30,000. Amongst voters, just 28% fell into this income category.
CORRECTION (October 3, 2019): The message of the report has been edited to exactly an error in the report vote selection of non-Hispanic white mainline Protestants, 57% of who voted for Donald trumped vs. 37% for Hillary Clinton. The graphics and also tables were unaffected by this error.
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CORRECTION: (August 9, 2018): In the graph “Among validated voters in 2016, large gap amongst whites by education,” the “share the electorate” column has actually been edited come reflect update percentages for gender by race to correct for a data tabulation error. Transforms did not influence the report’s substantive findings. The connected detailed tables have also been to update accordingly.