"This U.S.-North Korean commitment will help to achieve a long-standing and vital American objective: an end to the hazard of atom proliferation ~ above the oriental peninsula." -President invoice Clinton

"The new accord ... Outlines sophisticated timetable for measures by every side.... However American officials recognize that the commitment ... Will certainly require huge patience and also perseverance .... hey concede the it poses a danger for lot of the following decade the North Korea could readjust its mind, cast aside the accord and also have the straightforward fuel in hand to produce nuclear weapons." -The new York times 2

"The background of dialogue between the 2 Koreas abounds with situations in which phibìc Korea has attempted to go after this particular approach.... The north Korean an option of a "package deal" approach usually had an ext to carry out with that is desire to hold-up consummation that agreements or their implementation." -Former senior South korean negotiator Lee Dong Bok3

"Ten years from now, we"ll understand whether us did the best thing." -Anonymous U.S. Federal government officiaO

1 White residence Press Conference, October 18, 1994. 2 Michael R. Gordon, "U.S.-North Korea Accord has actually a 10 Year Timetable," The brand-new YorkTinzes, October 21, 1994, p. A8. 3 comments from Lee Dong Bok, "Negotiating with North Korea," file delivered in ~ the American enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., august 15, 1994, p. 11. 4 Jeffrey R. Smith, "U.S. Accord with North Korea might Open country to Change," The Washington Post, October 23, 1994, p. A36.

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INTRODUCTION

~ 17 month of blatant negotiations over the Pyongyang government"s nuclear program, the joined States and also North Korea signed a detailed covenant in Geneva on October 2 1. The pact is a very complex, three-staged, multilateral arrangement whose terms will certainly not it is in fulfilled for countless years. For the most part, the deal shows up "front loaded" in donate of Pyongyang. A consor- tium the nations, led by the joined States, is responsible for building a modem nu- clear power framework for the well-armed, repressive communist state. The same con- sortium will certainly bolster the North"s faltering economy by easing the immediate energy bur- dens with large quantities of cost-free fuel oil. In one October 20 letter come North korean strong- man Kim Jong Il, moreover, president Clinton vastly broadened America"s commitments under the official agreement. The U.S., stated Clinton, would certainly finance the fuel shipments and also the reactors if the consortium stops working to perform so. The complete value the the U.S. Pledge is esti- mated conservatively at an ext than $4 billion. In enhancement to leading the international power assistance consortium, Washington has actually pledged to lull its long-standing trade embargo and move towards first-ever diplomatic relations with the North. This concessions provide Pyongyang a degree of political rec- ognition by the U.S. And its allies the it long has sought. Left unaddressed is the immedi- ate hazard posed by the North"s formidable conventional army force, which consists of a big stockpile of chemical and biological weapons and missiles capable of getting to South Korea and Japan. Around 37,000 U.S. Troops space stationed in southern Korea to respond to the North"s military threat. The Clinton Administration"s aim in every one of this is, first, to frozen the North oriental nu- clear routine and, ultimately, to evaluate the North"s past efforts to develop nuclear bombs and preclude any type of future weapons capabilities. U.S. Intelligence and also defense public representative esti- mate the the north has sufficient enriched fuel to produce nuclear weapons. Secretary of Defense william Perry has actually stated, "it is possible they could make one or also two de- vices, perhaps even nuclear bombs."5 also assuming smooth implementation of the Oc- tober 21 agreement, however, its goals cannot probably be fulfilled completely for at least a decade.

If occasions proceed smoothly and also according to the Clinton Administration"s fancy script, necessary American interests would certainly be served. The security threat the the North oriental nuclear program poses to the region would it is in extinguished. Brand-new avenues together as boosted economic, political, and also social contacts would be opened up for inter-Korean anxiety reduction. Issues that Pyongyang might sell nuclear technology to other rogue claims would cease. Pyongyang would slowly open that sealed society to outside con- tacts and influences, improving chances for reforms that its Stalinist political and also eco- nomic systems. However North Korea"s past behavior suggests that Americans must regard this commitment as tentative at best. Its facility requirements need a huge measure of great faith and

5 Testimony prior to the U.S. Senate equipped Services Committee, February 2, 1994. Reciprocity top top the component of Pyongyang. The North, however, has a long and consistent track document of reneging ~ above its promises. There is ample reason to doubt that bona fides and also commitment come the Geneva agreement. Likewise, there is ample reason to suspect that the Geneva commitment was signed through Pyongyang simply to buy time to retain its nu- clear capabilities and to obtain unilateral services from the West. Secretary that State Warren Christopher will certainly visit Seoul November 8- 10. His trip is a timely opportunity to combine America"s weak place in the October covenant by taking measures aimed at preventing any North oriental stalling or backsliding. While there, Secretary Christopher should:

V announce Washington"s intentionally to choose a special envoy come deal straight with the Pyongyang regimen to assure complete North korean compliance with the October 21 agreement.

V call on Pyongyang come resume substantive, high-level talks v the south imme- diately.

V make it clear the the U.S. Will certainly consult very closely with Seoul top top the implementa- tion of all aspects of the October 21 commitment to avoid any misunderstanding through Washington"s chief ally in this matter.

V push China to use its leverage with Pyongyang come comply through the October 21 agreement.

V Enlist Japan and Russia to tell Pyongyang the they expect strict and timely im- plementation the the North"s responsibilities under the agreement.

at the very first signs of North oriental stalling, the U.S. Need to be all set to:

V use economic press on the north by resuming the U.S. Embargo and also en- courage similar steps by China, Japan, and Russia - Pyongyang"s significant trad- ing partners.

V relocate to broaden financial sanctions in ~ the United countries Security Council.

V Take suitable steps come bolster the present U.S.-South korean military capa- bility.

V Be prepared to prevent any attempt through the north to spread out nuclear or missile technology to various other rogue states.

THE OCTOBER 21 DEAL

given that the U.S. Has actually never known the Pyongyang program and, till a few years ago, refused even casual contact with that officials, the benefits available by Washington room generous. Under the October 21 accord, the Clinton administration will:

V lull within three months the present embargo implemented by Washington on trade through the North.

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V Exchange "liaison offices" v Pyongyang and eventually move to complete diplo- matic relations.

V provide a "negative protection assurance," pledging the Washington will certainly not threaten Pyongyang through nuclear weapons or use nuclear weapons against the North.

V type a consortium with Seoul, Tokyo, and other allies to lug out building and construction in phibìc Korea of 2 light water nuclear reactors costing an estimated $4 bil- lion. These new reactors would certainly be lot less capable of creating weapons- grade fuel than the North"s current graphite reactors. Building and construction would be fi- nanced mostly by southern Korea and also Japan, follow to Clinton administration statements. Optimistic approximates of the time essential for perfect of this re- actors range from eight come ten years.

V Ameliorate the North"s extreme energy shortage with huge supplies of cost-free fuel oil. This assist obligation would certainly be shouldered generally by the consortium, according to the U.S. State Department.

V usage U.S. Taxpayers" dollars, if necessary, to fund the multi-billion dollar reactor and also fuel help projects. In a very unusual letter dated October 20, president Clin- ton pledged to pick up the full tab if the regards to the October 21 covenant are "not completed for reasons past the regulate of the DPRK ." He added that this would be "subject to the approval the the U.S. Congress."

It appears that the management delayed revealing the components of the letter to stop press, public, and also congressional criticism. In substantial press confer- ences ~ above October 18, 19, and also 25, an elderly Administration officials consistently stressed the Japan and also South Korea would money the fuel and reactor projects. The Clinton letter was not released to the push until October 26. In return, north Korea pledges to take a collection of procedures over a period of years. In step one, it has actually promised that it will immediately:

V refrain from reprocessing right into weapons-grade fuel the controversial 8,000 fuel rods it unloaded indigenous its only operating reactor in May.

V refrain from refueling the 5 megawatt reactor at the Yongbyon facility north the Pyongyang.

V "Freeze," or seal, that is Yongbyon fuel reprocessing facility wherein international examiners suspect the north has developed an unknown quantity of weapons- great nuclear material in the past.

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inished nuclear reactors, one in ~ the Yongbyon V Cease construction of two unf complex and the various other at Taechong in the nation"s northwestern region.

V Resume stalled negotiations with southern Korea, return no time framework for this is specified in the agreement. RUSSIA Changcnun mad ostok