It’s one oversimplification come say the shares that Ford (NYSE:F) space a falling knife. F stock is down more than 50% because that the year. And also with small to no revenue scheduled for the next several months, there’s no factor for the share to rise.

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On April 2, Ford reported first-quarter sales the were down 12.5%. If that was where sales to be in March, you have actually to figure that the April and also May numbers space going to be horrific. Like numerous things in our present economy, the existing malaise is no Ford’s fault. Need is suppressed due to the fact that consumers room sheltering in ar (and if you’re not, you re welcome do).

But Ford is dealing with two problems. First, nobody to know when need will come back. When the financial engine starts earlier up, consumers will certainly be security money. Yet it’s difficult to imagine the buying cars will certainly be a height priority. Many Americans are eager to get back to work. Yet according come Kate Lister, chairman of an international Workplace Analytics, up to 25% of the workforce may telecommute at the very least two days a main in 2 years.

And a larger issue is that Ford was currently experiencing softening sales going right into 2020. F stock obtained a background in 2019 due to aggressive cost cutting tied to a restructuring program. However, as I created in September of critical year, Ford to be racing versus a recession. And also at that time, most experts were projecting a 12 to 24-month home window for a recession. That window is close up door fast.

When Is a Bailout not a Bailout?

Which brings us to Ford’s many dire problem. Ford has gone all in on electric vehicles. But with oil prices in the tank, and also gas price at document lows, it seems that America’s electrical future is top top hold.

Unless the is, it’s additionally Ford’s finest opportunity. One of the narratives that emerged from the financial crisis of 2008 was that Ford did no accept a bailout. In the literal sense of the word, that’s true. Unlike other automakers consisting of General Motors (NYSE:GM), and also Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU), Ford did not receive any type of money from the TARP program.

But Ford did obtain money native the federal government in the form of a distinct low-cost loan program. This $25 billion program was intended to promote the advancement of advanced modern technology (e.g. Electric) vehicles that would certainly be make in the U.S.

However, back the regimen was developed by the Bush management in 2007, it wasn’t funded till 2009 once the brand-new Obama management was ushered in. At the time, Ford inquiry for and also received $5.9 billion dollars as a loan.

Beware a government Bearing Gifts

That loan came through a significant amount the strings attached. Ford do a significant investment in electric vehicles, pledged come make much more fuel-efficient engines (based indeed on commonwealth guidelines), and also hybrids. They also announced castle would convert two plants specialized to truck production to develop cars.

Which bring me come a potential opportunity for Ford and F stock. Ford might be too crucial to fail. If the firm fails, that is an indictment against the idea of federal government picking winners and losers. Because it’s clear that Ford was developing cars that fit the file of what the government wanted the firm to produce.

Will Ford require an assist from the Government?

It’s too early on to tell. F stock has actually taken the temporary hit from the agency cancelling the dividend and also draining the entire $15.4 billion it had easily accessible from two credit facilities. Those actions and the almost $35 exchange rate in cash and cash equivalents the company had in ~ the end of 2019 should help the agency get through numerous months without taking an ext drastic steps.

But every day the passes without a clean resolution of once our nationwide sheltering will end is time Ford does not have. The venerable car machine finds itself with a backlog that cars that the federal government asked them come make. The future that American automobiles will be electric. Yet with household incomes being wiped the end at an great rate, it’s clear the future is additional away 보다 it was just two month ago.

This time around, the government may require Ford as lot as Ford demands the government. Yet that doesn’t mean you have to need, or want, F share in her portfolio.

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Chris Markoch is a freelance jae won copywriter who has actually been extending the industry for over five years. He has actually been composing for since 2019. Together of this writing Chris Markoch did not hold a position in any kind of of the abovementioned securities.